The Significance Of 1.5°C: Is The End Already Here?

Last night I spent an hour or so ‘getting my life together,’ which meant I cleared out my to-do list, did my skincare, drank a glass of water, meditated, and read for an hour or so before topping it all off with a refreshing gander at TikTok before bed.

As I lay scrolling through several videos — decoding propaganda spread by a *certain few countries*; pleas of people in Palestine asking me to stop scrolling and help donate or at least like, comment, save, and repost to save their lives; informing me about the ‘sprinkle, sprinkle’ movement; talking about late stage capitalism; analyzing intersectional feminism and the perils of patriarchy; endorsing Laneige lip masks; getting me up to speed on their dating life — I stopped at one by (@)SustainableJosh.

Josh begins his video by announcing a rather grim fact. We’ve officially passed 1,5°C on the global warming scale. What this means is, that for the first time since the pre-Industrial revolution, Earth has measured to be 1,5°C hotter, globally, for an entire 12-month period. In addition to this, we’ve just faced the hottest January on record, and 2023 was the hottest year we’ve had in a century and a half, being globally 1,37°C higher than the pre-Industrial Revolution average.

To explain this (seemingly insignificant increase) further, take a look at what Climate.gov says about the meaning behind this number:

When you read or hear climate numbers, they are often being compared to average. The September 2023 NOAA global surface temperatures, for instance, were 1.44 degrees Celsius above average. That average represents a defined period of time. In this case, September was 1.44°C warmer than the average September of the twentieth century.

– What’s in a number? The meaning of the 1.5-C climate threshold, by Tom Di Liberto

The reason why this seemingly small increase in global temperatures is an actual cause of concern is because each 0,1°C increase is the harbinger of climate-related calamities, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, famines, and of course, uninhabitable temperatures. And, the closer you are to the equator, the more fatal the consequences.

Each 0,1°C increase is the harbinger of climate-related calamities, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, famines, and of course, uninhabitable temperatures.

The same article also explains the significance of the 1,5°C threshold:

So why did the Paris Agreement define the global temperature target of 1.5°C? Because both models and paleoclimate data show that beyond 1.5°C, the risk of severe impacts to some ecosystems and locations — including places where people are least responsible for the problem — become larger than the world as a whole was willing to accept. Urgent action in this decade is essential for trying to minimize these impacts.

– What’s in a number? The meaning of the 1.5-C climate threshold, by Tom Di Liberto

It seems rather ironic and cruel that, while developing countries like India and China produce considerably lessons emissions per capita, 1,58 metric tons and 7,76 metric tons respectively, than their developed counterparts, the United States (13,03 metric tons), it is these developing countries that shall first bear the brunt of aggressive climate change.

In a book Josh references in his video, The Ministry For The Future, written by Kim Stanley Robinson, a fictional image of over 20 million deaths in India, in one week, due to blazing temperatures struck a chord with me. Though for now, these numbers seem dystopian and distant, by 2050 they might as well be our nightmarish reality.

So, all this to say who should really be blamed for this disparity? Should someone even be blamed at all?

To answer this question, let’s first take a look at the major causes of climate change. According to the European Commission, CO₂ produced by humans is the top contender for the blame. This UN article states fossil fuels are the leading causes, generating over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 90% of carbon emissions.

A New York Times article published in 2021 mentions:

Rich countries, including the United States, Canada, Japan and much of western Europe, account for just 12 percent of the global population today but are responsible for 50 percent of all the planet-warming greenhouse gases released from fossil fuels and industry over the past 170 years.

– Who Has The Most Historical Responsibility for Climate Change?, by Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer

In a globalized world, assigning blame to individual countries for climate change isn’t always straightforward. International transportation, for example, isn’t typically included in any one country’s emissions total.

– These three charts show who is most to blame for climate change, by Casey Crownhart (2022)

All this comes down to trying to answer the question: who is the culprit? Who should make the immediate change? This article, ‘The Individual Carbon Footprint. How much does it actually matter?’ talks about ‘why it is important not to blame the climate crisis on individuals and their consumer choices.’

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), around 70% of carbon dioxide emissions stem from just 100 companies worldwide. This staggering statistic highlights that individual efforts alone cannot single-handedly solve the climate crisis.

– ‘The Individual Carbon Footprint. How much does it actually matter?’ by Martin Horný and Kateřina Matějovcová

This Guardian article states that 57 companies are responsible for about 80% of carbon emissions since 2016. Imagine that. ExxonMobil contributed 3,6 gigatons of CO₂, while Shell, BP, Chevron, and TotalEnergies followed closely by.

Companies like PepsiCo, Nestle, Mondelez, General Mills, Hershey, and Danone were the top food companies with significant GHG emissions in 2021.

Speaking of celebrities, according to Capital News Service, Travis Scott contributed about 13,362,879 lbs of CO₂ emissions in 2023. An average person contributes around 8,000 lbs. If we do the math right, his emissions outweigh those of 1,670 people put together. Kim Kardashian comes in second with 12,913,797 lbs. Elon Musk completed the trifecta with 10,063,441 lbs.

This is all a part of a bigger problem. While switching to paper straws and vegan cheese might help the environment, the overarching effects are negligible when compared to the power held by companies and powerful individuals. This isn’t to say we must shirk off all responsibility of being better climate-conscious citizens, but the key to making actual change is to hold people who are directly responsible accountable.

The key to making actual change is to hold people who are directly responsible accountable.

I completely agree with this bit from the Union of Concerned Scientists —

As people around the world mobilize to address the climate crisis, major fossil fuel companies need to get on board or get out of the way. By holding them accountable, we can diminish their negative influence over the political process — and increase the likelihood of climate action.

– Climate Accountability, (Kathy Mulvey)

How do we hold them accountable?

This article from the University of Colorado Boulder spells it out for us:

1. Mobilize refers to coming together with like-minded people, protesting for the right to live. There is, unfortunately, no time left for nuance or subtlety. We must all come together as one, and fight for the right for life to continue to flourish on Earth, the only home we know. Network; speak with your family, friends, and colleagues, and post on social media — get eyes on what matters.
2. Understand that profit is the antagonist to actual climate progress. Companies (if one can fathom this reality) will need to give up chasing after monetary gains because that is the only way to make sustainable changes. But remember kids, short-term pain, is a long-term gain.
3. Litigation could come into play, as a last resort. There are times when no words fall upon the deaf ears of governments, companies, and individuals, and as we know, desperate times call for desperate measures. A recent example that comes to mind is the Willow Project, which was met with widespread rage, petitions and action. If we can bring about change once, we can do it twice, thrice, and as many times as we need.

Living under the tiresome gaze of late-stage capitalism, rampant consumerism, unending genocides, and political conflicts might have us become indifferent, depressed, or even hopeless and defeated about the state of the world. But all is not lost yet. We still have life left in us to fight.

I’d also like to illustrate the dangers of individualism under capitalism. The capitalist system we’re living under has done a fair job of making us think we’re all alone in the world; the only individuals who matter, the only individuals with feelings, thoughts, and lives that hold importance. Capitalism has succeeded at this, so far, but we need to realise we’re all connected. The carbon emissions from a bomb dropped on Gaza do not know which boundaries to follow, which territories to afflict, and which suburbs to steer clear of. It will spread everywhere. Rest assured, one way or another, the destruction we choose to ignore will come for us. This is a quote I recently saw on Pinterest:

We cannot continue to live a life worth living if we stick to individualism. If clean water runs out in Flint or Hawaii or the DR Congo, it should bother us. If modern-day slavery where children are the targets affects those in Congo or Sudan, it should anger us. If women in Gaza are undergoing C-sections without any anaesthesia, or women are left to use tent material as menstrual products, it should enrage us. If children as young as 5 years old are forced to lose their limbs thanks to Israeli tanks if 11 children are killed while in a playground, it should disturb us.

The comment section of Josh’s video was flooded with people expressing their concern for our future. Many of them, like me, couldn’t see the point in continuing to make any effort anymore. What’s the point in us completing a degree, going to work, and contributing to the very system that sees profit in our collective misery? If all we see around ourselves is destruction, devastation, and death, what is the point?

The point is that all is not lost — yet.

It is OK to take a minute and grieve all the tragedy that plagues us today, but after that, we must mobilize. We need to be the harbingers of change because the people in charge seem to be happy keeping things as is. While the promise of a spaceship and colonies on Mars for the rich may or may not be true, it does make sense to try and protect what’s left on Earth for the generations that will come after us.

It seems to me that this is the precise moment for us to pull ourselves up by the bootstraps and fight to protect our present and future. May the odds be ever in our favour.

Extra! Extra! Read all about it!

While doing some research to write this piece, I came across this marvellous piece, ‘Waste Colonialism in Africa,’ which explains the phenomenon wherein Europe and North America dump their garbage on African soil, and leave them to deal with it.

While nations on the African continent declared their independence from the different colonial powers of Europe, the Global North has not quite yet lifted its power over these nations. Rather, this domination has only changed face. Today, the Global North still continues to exploit the continent’s land by using it as a dumping ground for its own waste.

– Waste Colonialism in Africa, by Peace Kalomba